Dandie from Leeds
“If Tories get in I’m selling my home and living in hotels and spending the money I saved for retirement”
Stu from Liverpool
“Who’d be gullible enough to believe a word Theresa May says? Say what you like about Corbyn, he sticks to his principles”
Patriotman from London
“A shameful attack on pensioners… I will never vote Tory again!”
It sounds like the above people join the many ex Tory voters within this link.
One of the most wanted terrorists in the world is now a Tory councillor
A former active member of the IRA is now an active member of the Tory Party despite admitting she once celebrated the deaths of British soldiers and even civilians killed in terrorist acts.
Maria Gatland – once known as Maria McGuire – is now a Conservative Party councillor in Croydon after being reelected in 2014.
Unsurprisingly, there is no mention of the fact she was an active IRA member on the Croydon Conservatives webpage:
Buried in the 84-page document, you’ll find a number of nasty surprises on the way from the Tories that you might not have spotted.
Here’s what you’ll find if you check the small print.
1. You’re going to need ID to vote
In a bid to combat in-person voter fraud the Tories are going to change the law so you have to take ID with you when you vote.
The problem is, there’s little evidence that in-person voter fraud actually happens.
Of 51.5 million votes cast in elections in 2015, there were 481 cases of alleged electoral fraud.
Of these, the vast majority were not voting offences. More than half were campaigning offences – such as complaints about candidates making false statements about opponents, expenses offences or issues to do with campaign posters or flyers.
Just 123 alleged cases related to voter fraud, with 26 cases of impersonating another voter, 27 cases of improper postal voting and 25 cases of ‘undue influence’ over a voter.
Of these 123, all but 22 were dismissed – mostly because it was clear no offence had been committed or due to lack of evidence.
Of the remaining 22 cases, six resulted in police cautions.
It’s a solution that doesn’t have a problem.
On the other hand, 3.5 million voters don’t have photo ID – and they tend to be women, people from ethnic minorities and young people.
2. The Vote Leave bus pledge is officially not happening
Before the referendum, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove toured the country in a big red bus, emblazoned on which was the claim: “We send the EU £350 million a week. Let’s fund our NHS instead”
Theresa May has other ideas.
Buried in the manifesto is a reference to a “Shared Prosperity Fund” which will “redistribute money coming back as we leave the EU to the four nations.”
So no, the NHS won’t be getting £350 million a week extra under the Tories.
3. They’ve left the door open to more welfare cuts
Note “..we will continue to strive for full employment.” shrugging their shoulders over those they’ve pushed to death (ref the statements from three separate coroners). If they get into power you can expect more Tory voters complaining when they fall ill. Don’t say we didn’t warn you.
A subtle change in language in Theresa May’s manifesto, launched this morning, opens the door for more cuts to benefits for the sick, disabled and working poor.
Former Work and Pensions Secretary Stephen Crabb said in March 2016: “We have no further plans to make welfare savings”
And his replacement, Damian Green, said in February: “We are not going to have any new welfare cuts in this Parliament apart from those that have already been legislated for.”
But here’s what it says in today’s manifesto – buried on page 54
“We have no plans for further radical welfare reform in this parliament and will continue the roll-out of Universal Credit, to ensure that it always pays to be in work.”
See the difference?
4. Remember all those civil service jobs David Cameron moved to London? They’re moving out again
5. The Commitment to halve the disability employment gap has been scrapped
The 2015 manifesto promised to cut the difference in employment figures between disabled and non-disabled people in half.
That’s been replaced by a commitment to getting a million more disabled people into employment, which the Social Market Foundation say is “weaker”.
6. There might be a hard border with Northern Ireland after all
Theresa May has previously insisted there would be “no return to the hard borders of the past” between Northern Ireland and the Republic after Brexit .
But today’s document says they’re aiming for “as frictionless a border as possible.”
7. The Immigration health surcharge is going to TRIPLE
Migrant workers who use the NHS are currently charged £200. That’s going up to £600.
International students still get a discount, but their charges are tripling too, from £150 to £450.
8. They’re going to ‘modernise’ the voting system by making it less fair
The Tories love the First Past the Post (FPTP) system. It’s outdated, unfair and benefits them massively in elections.
So they’ve decided to ‘modernise’ the voting system by replacing the current Single Transferable Vote (STV) system used in mayoral and police and crime commissioner elections with FPTP.
Because voters can cast a ‘second choice’ vote in STV, it ensures vastly fewer votes are wasted. It also remove some of the advantages big parties get from FPTP. Which is why the Tories don’t like it.
Dump the Tories before they dump you!
Tories seem to enjoy lying to the electorate. Recently we had Theresa May claiming she debated with the electorate up and down the country on her tours. We know this is a lie because the electorate were not permitted to ask her any questions. We also know reporters were hand-picked and while they could ask her up to two questions they were not allowed to record the question or her answering it. After each reporter had their two questions they were ushered out of the room. Additionally we know from Channel 4 reporter Michael Crick that press are collaborating with Theresa May’s press team by allowing her to know their questions in advance.
The most recurring Tory lie is that Labour borrow more than Tories. We can prove that Tories have in fact borrowed more than Labour for the past 70 years.
The next time a Tory tells you Labour borrowed more show them this..
[The first task was to secure data on borrowing by year from 1946/47 onwards: this data covers a 70 year period. Labour was in office for 28 of these years and the Conservatives for 42.
The next task was very simple: I calculated the total net borrowing in Labour and Conservative years and averaged them by the number of years in office. All figures are stated billions of pounds in all the tables that follow and in this case are in original values i.e. in the prices of the periods when they actually occurred:
The Conservatives borrowed more, not just absolutely (which is unsurprising as they had more years in office), but on average.
This though, is a bit unfair: the value of money changes over time. So I restated all borrowing in 2014 prices to eliminate the bias this gives rise to. This resulted in the following table:
In current prices the Conservatives still borrowed more (much more) overall, and on average, by a long way.
So then I speculated that this may be distorted by events since 2008. That is what the Conservatives would claim, after all: they would say that they have spent six years clearing up Labour’s mess. So I took those years out of account and looked at the first 62 years of the sample. First I did this in original prices:
That was close! So I did it again in 2014 prices:
Not quite so close after all: Labour definitely borrowed less.
Then I speculated that this might be because Labour are good Keynesians: maybe they repaid national debt more often than the Conservatives. Or, to put it another way, they actually repaired the roof when the sun was shining. This is the data in terms of number of years:
Labour do walk the talk: they repay national debt much more often in absolute and percentage terms than the Conservatives. In fact, one in four Labour years saw debt repaid. That was true in less than one in ten Conservative years.
But maybe the Conservatives repaid more. I checked that. This is the data in both original and 2014 prices:
Labour not only repaid more often, it turns out: it also repaid much more in total and on average (not shown) during each year when repayment was made.
So what do we learn? Two essential things, I suggest.
First, Labour invariably borrows less than the Conservatives. The data always shows that.
And second, Labour has always repaid debt more often than the Conservatives, and has always repaid more debt, on average.
The trend does not vary however you do the data.
Or, to put it another way, the Conservatives are the party of high UK borrowing and low debt repayment contrary to all popular belief, including that of most radio presenters. Which means that the next time I am presented with that nonsense I will be very firmly rebutting it.
For those interested, this is the overall summary table: the pattern in the right hand column is really quite surprising:
The basic data on borrowing came from the House of Commons Library.
GDP data from 1955 came from the 2015 budget GDP deflators. The 2015-16 estimate came from the July 2015 budget report. The data for the period period to 1955 came from the Bank of England. Data was checked to the Treasury Pocket Data Book: as is usual there are minor differences, but too small to worry about.
GDP deflator data came from similar sources but was estimated for 2015-16 based on 2014-15 and for the period prior to 1955 based on data for 1955 – 65. It is unlikely that this estimate materially changes any finding.
Governments in office for a year were determined in election years by the number of days each had in office: the party with the greater number being attributed the whole year.
Created by / thanks to Richard Murphy, Professor of Practice in International Political Economy at City University, London and Director of Tax Research UK. Non-executive director of Cambridge Econometrics. ]